近期回调后，“AI卖铲股”的估值如何了？

Core Viewpoint - The infrastructure stocks supporting the AI boom have shown a remarkable return of 41% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the broader market and nearly doubling the performance of major tech giants like the "Tech Seven" and Broadcom [1][4]. Group 1: Performance and Valuation - The economic price-to-earnings ratio (Economic P/E) of these industrial stocks has expanded from approximately 25 times a year ago to nearly 35 times currently, indicating a significant premium over the broader market but still lower than leading tech giants [1][5]. - Despite a recent market pullback, the strong performance of AI infrastructure stocks remains supported by robust fundamentals, including substantial improvements in cash flow return on investment (CFROI) and accelerated asset growth [3][6]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - Major tech companies are increasing their capital expenditure forecasts, with Meta raising its 2025 capital expenditure expectations from $66-72 billion to $70-72 billion, and Alphabet increasing its forecast from $85 billion to $91-93 billion [7][8]. - The combined free cash flow of Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft reached $60.8 billion in just one quarter, indicating strong demand for AI-related capital expenditures [8]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Growth Rates - The market's long-term growth expectations for these industrial stocks are relatively moderate, with an average projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% over the next 4 to 10 years, compared to 9% for the "Tech Seven" [16]. - There is a notable divergence in market expectations among individual companies, with Bloom Energy (BE) representing high expectations with a projected CAGR of about 14%, while First Solar (FSLR) has a near-zero growth expectation [17][18]. Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Bloom Energy (BE) has seen its stock price surge over 400% this year due to its solid oxide fuel cells providing rapid onsite power for data centers, reflecting high market expectations [17]. - First Solar (FSLR) faces skepticism with a projected long-term sales growth rate close to zero, which may present opportunities for investors who believe its growth potential is underestimated [17]. - Schneider Electric (SCHN) has a moderate growth expectation of around 5%, benefiting from its strong position in the AI data center infrastructure market [18].