聚焦气候变化｜COP30净零排放图集

Core Insights - 95% of countries failed to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0) by the UN's February deadline, but major emitters have set 2035 targets, covering 71% of G20 emissions [1] - G20 countries with targets are expected to increase annual emissions reductions from -0.5% to -0.7% (2023-2030) to -2.6% to -3.5% (2030-2035), achieving an additional 13% to 18% reduction over five years [1] Transformation Risk Analysis - Over 70 countries have submitted or announced new 2035 targets despite geopolitical tensions, including major emitters like China, Russia, and Brazil, while the U.S. has withdrawn [3] - The new 2035 targets align with a global temperature increase forecast of 2.2–2.3°C, slightly better than the 2.4°C forecast under NDCs 2.0, but still above the Paris Agreement goal [3] - The acceleration in global emissions reduction is primarily driven by large emerging economies, with some countries like the UK and Australia committing to faster decarbonization, while others like Canada and Japan show slower rates [3] Physical Risk Analysis - By mid-century, climate physical disasters could put an additional 500 million people and $20 trillion GDP at high risk, with a total of 839 million people and $28.3 trillion GDP facing risks by 2050 [3] - Major cities like Tokyo, New York, and Shanghai will see increased exposure to climate risks, with over 80% of Japan's GDP and population facing typhoons at least once every ten years [3] - By 2050, over 327 million people will face extreme heat conditions, and 670 regions will experience severe water stress, impacting health and economic productivity [3] Implications for Investors - Investors must understand how government emission commitments reshape global growth trajectories and asset valuations, as climate physical risks increasingly challenge markets and economies [6] - The report provides detailed risk mapping and forecasts, translating macro climate models into actionable investment decisions [6] - The unique application of the implied temperature rise (ITR) metric offers a clear benchmark for assessing countries' climate goals against the Paris Agreement [8]