【广发宏观贺骁束】11月经济初窥

Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - Power generation growth rate has declined, with cumulative coal-fired power generation down 2.7% year-on-year as of November 6, compared to a 6.2% increase in October [1][6] - Industrial operating rates show mixed trends, with upstream steel and coking rates declining, while downstream weaving rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased [2][7] - As of the second week of November, the operating rate of 247 blast furnaces increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while coking enterprises saw a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [7][8] Group 2: Steel Production and Construction Activity - Key steel mills reported a month-on-month decline in crude steel production, with a 1.4% decrease recorded as of November 10 [2][9] - The construction sector is experiencing a seasonal slowdown, with the asphalt operating rate falling by 3.9 percentage points month-on-month as of November 12 [2][11] - Cement dispatch rates decreased to 33.4%, down 4.3 percentage points month-on-month as of November 7 [11][12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales Trends - Passenger vehicle retail sales saw a significant year-on-year decline of 19% from November 1 to 9, with wholesale sales down 22% [4][18] - Real estate sales are weak, with a 38.4% year-on-year drop in average daily transactions for commercial housing in 30 major cities from November 1 to 16 [3][15] - Home appliance sales continue to decline, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing significant drops [4][19][20] Group 4: Shipping and Logistics - Port container throughput remained stable year-on-year, with a 6.5% increase from November 3 to 9, similar to October's growth [4][21] - Data on container shipments to the U.S. showed a significant decline, with the number of ships and tonnage down 26.8% and 30.2% respectively as of November 13 [4][21] Group 5: Price Trends and Economic Indicators - The Business Price Index (BPI) has continued to rise, with energy and non-food prices showing upward trends [5][24][25] - The lithium hexafluorophosphate price has significantly increased due to rising energy storage demand, reflecting a broader trend in the new manufacturing sector [5][26] - Consumer price indices for non-food items have shown fluctuations, with some categories experiencing price increases [5][27]