华尔街共识浮现？摩根大通刚划出“关键防线”，高盛也警告标普6725点为多空分水岭

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index at 6725 points is identified by Goldman Sachs as a critical technical threshold, with a potential breach signaling a trend reversal and triggering systematic selling by CTA funds [3][5][6]. Market Trends and Indicators - The S&P 500 is currently testing the first support level around 6700 points, with further critical levels at 6631 and 6525 points. A breach of these levels could confirm a bearish trend reversal, targeting a drop to approximately 6150 points [6]. - The Russell 2000 index has shown the most concerning breakdown pattern, confirming a bearish trend reversal and opening up space for further declines [6]. Fund Flows and Sector Rotation - There is a notable shift of funds from growth sectors, particularly technology, to defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples. The VIX index has spiked above 23, indicating increased market anxiety [8][9]. - In the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors, short selling has outpaced long buying, while defensive sectors have seen stronger demand from long-term funds [8][9]. Volatility and Risk Factors - Nvidia has exhibited significant volatility, with market expectations of its earnings report potentially impacting its market cap by up to $300 billion. This volatility is concerning given Nvidia's market cap is approximately $4.6 trillion, significantly larger than the average market cap of Russell 2000 constituents [10]. - A sharp decline in momentum factors has been observed, with a Goldman Sachs momentum index experiencing one of its worst trading periods in a decade. This could lead to broader deleveraging and asset repricing if selling pressure continues [10].