【招银研究】美联储降息预期收敛，国内经济逆风加大——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2025.11.17-11.21）

Group 1: Overseas Macro Strategy - The end of the US government shutdown and hawkish signals from some Fed officials led to a slight increase in US Treasury yields, while gold initially rose before falling, and the US dollar slightly retreated [2] - The US stock market is expected to transition from a phase driven by both earnings and valuation to one primarily driven by corporate earnings growth, amidst increased market volatility [2] - Over 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations in the third quarter, providing market support despite high valuations [2] - The narrative surrounding AI's potential to drive a fourth industrial revolution is yet to be validated, suggesting a need for cautious adjustment of annual return expectations to single-digit levels [2] - A diversified investment strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors such as industrials, utilities, energy, and healthcare, in addition to technology stocks [2] Group 2: US Treasury Bonds - Short-term market focus is on upcoming US economic data, although the validity of data during the government shutdown is limited [3] - Medium to long-term outlook suggests a downward shift in the central tendency of Treasury yields, with a continuation of a bull steepening yield curve [3] - Investors are advised to maintain positions in 2-5 year Treasury bonds, with long-term bonds recommended for purchase when the 10-year yield exceeds 4.2% [3] Group 3: Currency and Gold - The US dollar lacks fundamental support to stabilize above the 100 mark, with expectations of downward pressure due to a loose trading environment [3] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate slightly, influenced by the Fed's rate cut cycle and easing US-China trade tensions [3] - Gold is in a short-term adjustment phase but remains bullish in the long term, with expectations of continued Fed rate cuts and ongoing central bank gold purchases [4] Group 4: Domestic Macro Strategy - Domestic economic pressures are increasing, with significant declines in real estate transaction volumes and prices, particularly in first-tier cities [6] - Financial growth has slowed, with a decrease in both public and private financing demand, and a drop in the growth rate of RMB loans to 6.5% [6] - Export dynamics remain stable, with a 6.3% year-on-year increase in average cargo throughput in October, indicating resilience in certain export categories [7] - Recent government meetings have focused on enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, signaling a shift towards a more balanced policy approach [7] Group 5: Monetary Policy and Bonds - The central bank's monetary policy report indicates a focus on optimizing structural tools and emphasizing price-based regulation over quantity targets [8] - The bond market is expected to maintain a low-volatility, oscillating trend, with the 10-year Treasury yield stabilizing around 1.8% [9] - The outlook for the bond market suggests a steep yield curve, with a central tendency around 1.8% and potential fluctuations between 1.6% and 1.9% [10] Group 6: A-shares and Hong Kong Market - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3990 points, influenced by weak economic data and reduced Fed rate cut expectations [10] - The Hong Kong market showed a 1.26% increase in the Hang Seng Index, with expectations of continued upward movement post-adjustment [11] - The overall outlook for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks remains cautiously optimistic, with anticipated liquidity improvements and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [11]