华尔街见闻·2025-11-17 10:43Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's top investment banks are establishing a new "bull-bear divide" as market sentiment becomes increasingly cautious [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Technical Levels - Goldman Sachs identifies 6725 points as a critical technical inflection point for the S&P 500 index; a breach could signal the end of a positive market trend that has persisted since February [2] - JPMorgan warns that the S&P 500 index faces key support levels at 6700, 6631, and 6525 points; breaking these levels could confirm a downward trend, potentially lasting until early 2026 [3][9] - The report highlights that the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 indices have also breached short-term momentum thresholds, indicating a potential for significant selling pressure from algorithm-driven commodity trading advisors (CTAs) [7] Group 2: Upcoming Market Events - The market is preparing for significant events, including Nvidia's earnings report, which could lead to a market capitalization fluctuation of up to $300 billion, and the first U.S. government employment report in two and a half months [4] Group 3: Defensive Rotation and Sector Performance - There is a notable shift of funds from growth sectors to defensive sectors, with the VIX index rising above 23 for the fourth time since April, indicating increased market anxiety [11] - In the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors, short selling has outpaced long buying, while defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples have seen stronger demand [11] - Despite the defensive shift, overall stock exposure has not significantly decreased, suggesting persistent market volatility [11] Group 4: Momentum Factor and Market Risks - A sharp decline in the momentum factor has been observed, with Goldman Sachs' momentum index experiencing one of its worst trading periods in a decade, raising concerns about potential instability [13] - The report indicates that despite the poor performance of the momentum factor, investor exposure remains high, which could lead to larger-scale deleveraging and asset repricing if selling continues [13]