傅里叶的猫·2025-11-17 13:04Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment return rates of major AI companies in China and abroad, questioning whether the current AI hype is a bubble based on the relationship between investment and output [2]. Group 1: Measurement Methodology - The calculation method involves dividing the projected AI-related revenue for 2025 (primarily from cloud services) by the current year's capital expenditure (Capex) based on market median estimates [4]. Group 2: Domestic and International Comparison - Alibaba's AI cloud revenue for 2025 is expected to reach 23 billion yuan, with a breakdown of 12 billion yuan from AI computing power and 11 billion yuan from AI PaaS, against a projected Capex of 120 billion yuan, resulting in a return rate of 19.2% [6]. - ByteDance's capital expenditure is 150 billion yuan, with an estimated AI revenue of 18 billion yuan, leading to a return rate of 12% [7]. - Tencent's projected AI revenue is approximately 5.9 billion yuan, with a Capex of 85 billion yuan, resulting in a return rate of 7.1% [7]. - Microsoft has a Capex of 100 billion USD, with an estimated AI revenue of 23 billion USD, yielding a return rate of 23% [7]. - Google's AI cloud revenue is projected at 24 billion USD, with a return rate of 26.3% [7]. - Amazon's AI-related revenue is expected to grow alongside overall cloud revenue, with a Capex of 125 billion USD [7]. Group 3: Conclusion - There is a significant gap in investment return rates between domestic companies and their international counterparts, with overseas giants achieving substantial revenue from external markets despite higher investment costs [8]. - Domestic companies face challenges in achieving external profitability, primarily using AI for internal purposes, while U.S. giants maintain a competitive advantage in revenue-to-investment ratios [9].