HBM抢走所有芯片产能？全球内存供应吃紧，明年智能手机或受冲击

Core Viewpoint - The memory industry is experiencing a significant downturn in 2023 and 2024, leading to insufficient investment and a prolonged supply shortage, which may result in rising prices for various consumer products, including smartphones and automobiles [1][8]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The explosive growth in AI demand is causing a global shortage of memory chips, with manufacturers shifting focus to high-margin AI application chips, limiting the supply of low-cost memory chips needed for traditional consumer products [3][5]. - Samsung Electronics has quietly increased the prices of some memory chips by 30%-60% in October, indicating the start of a strong price increase cycle in the memory industry [4][6]. - Analysts predict that the demand for AI will significantly exceed current levels by 2026, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the memory market [4][5]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The memory industry's downturn has led to insufficient investment and delayed new capacity coming online, which is expected to prolong supply tightness until at least the end of 2025 [7]. - The supply constraints are already impacting low-end smartphones and set-top box markets, with Asian markets feeling more pressure due to their reliance on low-cost devices [6][7]. - Concerns over production bottlenecks are rising as memory prices increase and supply diminishes, potentially forcing downstream brands to raise retail prices, thereby adding pressure to the consumer market [6][8].