国泰海通|策略:聚焦内需新机遇与科技主题轮动
国泰海通证券研究·2025-11-17 14:27

Core Viewpoint - The trading heat of hot themes has cooled down compared to October, with a differentiation in technology themes and a rebound in consumer blue chips. The focus is on new opportunities in domestic consumption and the new regional economic landscape, recommending sectors such as domestic consumption, Xinjiang infrastructure, AI applications, and robotics [1]. Group 1: Domestic Consumption - The State Council meeting emphasized enhancing supply-demand adaptability to unleash consumption potential, fostering new consumption scenarios and business formats. New demands are leading to new supplies, with emerging scenes in sports events, ice and snow tourism, and cultural performances [2]. - The "Su Super" effect has significantly driven consumption in Jiangsu, exceeding 38 billion yuan. The Northeast Super initiative aims to create a nationally influential football event brand [2]. - The consumption scale of ice and snow sports is projected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan in the 2024-2025 season, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth. Recommendations include sectors benefiting from consumption promotion and holiday policy optimization, such as tourism, duty-free, and hotels [2]. Group 2: Xinjiang Infrastructure - Xinjiang's development focuses on western openness, strategic positioning, energy resources, agricultural products, and national security. By 2025, Xinjiang plans to implement 500 key projects with a total investment of 3.47 trillion yuan, increasing the number of projects and annual investment compared to 2024 [3]. - Key projects include comprehensive transportation, efficient water resource utilization, and energy infrastructure, with a total investment of 1.21 trillion yuan in 186 projects. Additionally, 257 projects in oil and gas and clean coal utilization have a total investment of 2.22 trillion yuan [3]. - The aim is to establish a golden passage between Asia and Europe and a bridgehead for western openness, recommending investments in oil and gas extraction, power grids, and transportation infrastructure [3]. Group 3: AI Applications - Alibaba launched the "Qwen App," a personal AI assistant based on its Qwen model. The State Council issued guidelines to accelerate the cultivation and large-scale application of AI scenarios [4]. - The goal is to achieve over 70% penetration of new intelligent terminals and agents by 2027, and over 90% by 2030. The focus is on model iteration, strong capital expenditure, and domestic production [4]. - Recommendations include investments in internet and financial applications, as well as data center power equipment and domestic computing under increased global computing investment [4]. Group 4: Robotics - Yushu Technology completed its IPO counseling report, and Xiaopeng Motors launched a new humanoid robot, IRON, featuring advanced design elements [5]. - Robotics applications are accelerating in industrial scenarios involving repetitive, heavy, and dangerous tasks, as well as personalized home and companionship settings [5]. - The industry is leveraging manufacturing supply chain advantages to build a technological and scalable foundation, with recommendations for investments in key components like dexterous hands, sensors, and lightweight materials [5].