国泰海通｜医药：海外创新药产业链已呈结构性复苏趋势

Core Viewpoint - The overseas CXO industry has shown resilience under macroeconomic pressure, with overall sentiment stabilizing as of Q3 2025. The recovery of domestic CXO is recommended as macro indicators such as interest rate cuts and investment financing improve [1]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Maintain an "overweight" rating, focusing on CXO companies with global competitive advantages and those in the innovative drug supply chain with improving profitability [2]. - Companies primarily generating domestic revenue are expected to gradually recover as innovative drugs expand internationally [2]. Group 2: Clinical CRO Insights - Clinical CROs are benefiting from increased investment in late-stage pipelines by pharmaceutical companies, leading to high visibility in orders and performance [3]. - IQVIA shows strong data with a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.15 and a 20% year-on-year increase in RFP flow, while cancellations have normalized to $2.2 billion from over $3 billion annually [3]. - Medpace is performing exceptionally well with a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.20 and a pre-backlog exceeding $3 billion, indicating high revenue visibility for 2026 [3]. Group 3: CDMO Insights - CDMOs are characterized by high certainty due to long-term contracts, making them less susceptible to short-term financing fluctuations [4]. - Lonza maintains stable performance with strategic long-term contracts and a structure where early-stage business constitutes only 10% of revenue, providing immunity to biotech financing volatility [4]. - Samsung Biologics continues to project revenue growth of 25%-30% for the year, with total contract amounts exceeding $20 billion, showcasing strong order reserves [4].