国泰海通｜石化：己内酰胺行业自发“反内卷”，相关企业有望受益

Core Viewpoint - Caprolactam is primarily used for producing nylon, with continuous growth in nylon capacity since 2011 driving the sustained establishment of caprolactam capacity in China. By 2024, China's caprolactam capacity is expected to reach approximately 6.94 million tons per year, with a production of 6.543 million tons and a consumption of 6.49 million tons per year. Entering 2025, the downstream demand for caprolactam is expected to slow significantly, leading to "weak costs, weak demand, and high inventory" pressures, causing prices to drop to a low point. In response, the caprolactam industry has initiated a "de-involution" process, with industry association members agreeing to implement a 20% production cut and raise product prices by 100 yuan per ton. It is believed that with the continued execution of "de-involution" measures, the supply-demand structure of the caprolactam industry is expected to improve [1][4]. Production and Demand Summary - In 2024, China's caprolactam capacity is projected to be around 6.94 million tons per year, with a production of 6.543 million tons and a consumption of 6.49 million tons per year. New capacity additions in 2024 will total 1.15 million tons per year, including new installations from Hunan Petrochemical (300,000 tons/year), Luxi Chemical (300,000 tons/year), Hubei Sanning (400,000 tons/year), and Hualu Hensheng's capacity expansion [2][3]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for caprolactam consumption from 2021 to 2025 is 13.5%, although demand growth rates will vary by year. Demand growth is expected to be robust in 2023-2024, but will significantly slow in 2025, leading to pressures of "weak costs, weak demand, and high inventory" [2][3]. Industry Response - The caprolactam industry has initiated a "de-involution" process due to increasing issues of overcapacity and price chaos. An industry meeting on November 5, 2025, confirmed the urgency of this initiative, with participants agreeing to implement a 20% production cut and raise prices by 100 yuan per ton. As of late October to early November, the caprolactam supply side has seen increased maintenance of some facilities, reducing capacity utilization to around 86%, and the weekly supply-demand balance has turned negative, alleviating some inventory pressure [3][4].