重注AI下半场，资本「惩罚」软银

Core Viewpoint - SoftBank Group's stock price has experienced a significant decline following its decision to divest from Nvidia and invest heavily in OpenAI, raising concerns in the market about the sustainability of this strategy [4][12]. Group 1: SoftBank's Business Structure and Financial Performance - SoftBank's operations are divided into two main segments: commercial operations and financial investments, with the latter being the primary profit driver, generating 3.9 trillion yen in investment income in the first half of FY2026 [7][9]. - The financial investment segment has shown volatility, with significant losses from FY2022 to FY2024, only recovering in FY2025 due to successful key investments [7][9]. - The stock price of SoftBank surged over 200% since FY2025, primarily driven by its investment in OpenAI, which has become a critical factor for its valuation [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - The market's abrupt shift in sentiment towards SoftBank is attributed to its strategic decision to exit Nvidia, which previously provided substantial returns, and to concentrate on OpenAI, perceived as a high-risk gamble [12][14]. - The AI industry is characterized by a three-tier structure, with SoftBank's focus on OpenAI placing it in a risky position, as OpenAI transitions from a light-asset model to a heavier asset model due to its ambitious "Star Gate" plan [12][13]. - Concerns about OpenAI's ability to achieve its ambitious revenue targets, such as generating $200 billion by 2030, have led to skepticism in the capital markets, contributing to SoftBank's stock price decline [14][15].