“新美联储通讯社”：不管降息与否，美联储12月会议都可能有至少3张反对票

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a challenge in bridging internal divisions on interest rate paths without new economic data to reference [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Internal Divisions - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson's recent speech highlights the dilemma of balancing persistent inflation risks against weakening employment [4]. - There is a significant divide among Federal Reserve officials regarding the decision to maintain or lower interest rates, with potential for at least three dissenting votes in the upcoming December FOMC meeting [8]. Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have decreased, with implied probabilities dropping to approximately 45%, down from 60% a week prior and significantly lower than 90% during the October meeting [4][5]. - Jefferson reiterated that current interest rates are "slightly restrictive," which may hinder U.S. economic growth, yet recent cuts have brought rates closer to a neutral zone [4]. Economic Data and Decision-Making - The absence of significant economic data due to government shutdowns has exacerbated divisions among policymakers, with some officials indicating they will oppose further cuts unless employment worsens or inflation improves [5][6]. - Concerns about inflation persist, with some officials fearing that new price pressures from tariffs could keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target for the next two years [6]. Diverging Perspectives - One faction of officials, including those appointed by Trump, is more focused on labor market conditions and believes that the risks of high inflation are overstated [7]. - Another group, including several regional Fed presidents and Governor Michael Barr, is increasingly worried about inflation risks and the implications of further easing monetary conditions [6][7]. Economic Indicators - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate that companies are cautious about hiring and layoffs, with signs of weakening consumer confidence and sluggish wage growth suggesting ongoing economic challenges [8].