中金2026年展望 | 物业管理：挖潜红利价值

Core Viewpoint - The industry is transitioning towards a more sustainable business model characterized by moderate changes in volume and price, with relatively stable cash flows. In the short term, property management companies are experiencing moderate growth in revenue and profits driven by scale expansion, with cash collection under slight pressure and a continued increase in dividend willingness [2][5][6]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Changes in internal and external environments are accelerating the transformation of property management companies, leading to an optimization of project portfolios and a shift from "volume increase and price stability" to "sustainable development driven by reasonable price changes" [5][15]. - The industry growth rate is entering a stable phase, with expectations that from 2025 to 2026, the main covered companies will rely on basic property management services for overall growth, which is projected to account for 70-80% of total revenue with an average compound growth rate of 10% [5][23]. - The revenue growth for major covered companies is expected to be around 7% year-on-year for 2025 and 2026, with efficiency management and technology applications supporting profitability despite rising unit labor costs [23][24]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Cash collection rates are slightly under pressure, with projections indicating a decline of 1.1 and 0.9 percentage points in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively. However, property management companies still maintain substantial cash reserves, with cash on hand estimated between 4.7 billion and 14.1 billion yuan, representing 39%-68% of market value [6][24]. - The operating cash flow to net profit ratio is 1.6 times, indicating strong cash flow support for continued shareholder return actions, with some major covered companies expected to achieve a shareholder return rate of approximately 5-6% [6][24]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The property management sector has outperformed the development sector year-to-date but has lagged behind the broader market. As of November 4, the Hang Seng Property Index has risen by 14%, outperforming the China Real Estate Index by 23 percentage points, but underperforming the Hang Seng National Enterprises Index by 13 percentage points [9][11]. - The internal comparison shows that companies like Binhai Service and Greentown Service have relative advantages in profit growth and shareholder returns, outperforming their peers [9].