【广发宏观吴棋滢】10月税收增速为何偏强

Group 1 - In October, public fiscal revenue increased by 3.2% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year. Tax revenue showed strong performance, rising by 8.6% year-on-year, significantly higher than the cumulative growth of 0.02% in the previous eight months [1][4] - The strong growth in tax revenue in October is attributed to several factors, including a notable increase in individual income tax, which rose by 27.3% year-on-year. This may be linked to the active performance of the capital market and the implementation of new tax reporting regulations for internet platform enterprises [6][7] - The general public budget revenue for the first ten months of the year showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 0.8%, slightly above the initial budget target [4][11] Group 2 - Fiscal expenditure in October decreased by 12.9 percentage points to -9.8% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year and a front-loaded fiscal schedule. Most expenditure categories recorded negative growth, particularly in infrastructure-related spending [11][12] - The revenue from land transfer in October fell by 27.3% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure in the real estate sector. The cumulative government fund budget revenue for the first ten months was down 2.8% year-on-year, below the initial budget target [17][18] - In the context of declining fixed asset investment, broad fiscal policy has accelerated, with significant financial tools and local debt limits being introduced. However, hard data on construction and investment has not shown significant improvement yet [20]