一个国家将如何衰落？

Group 1 - The core issue facing Germany is a population crisis, characterized by severe aging and labor shortages, which exacerbates other economic challenges [10][12][22] - Germany's total fertility rate has declined to 1.35 in 2024, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1, leading to a rapidly aging population where 23.2% are aged 65 and above [13][15] - The labor force participation rate for those aged 15-64 is projected to drop to 62.89% by 2024, below the global average of 65.07%, indicating a shrinking workforce [15][19] Group 2 - Institutional reform is crucial for addressing Germany's economic challenges, including high energy costs and labor shortages, but progress has been slow [23][24] - The German tax system, characterized by high progressive taxes, discourages additional work and innovation, contributing to stagnant wages despite labor shortages [27][28] - The difficulty in implementing reforms is compounded by entrenched interest groups that resist changes that could disrupt their benefits, such as the rental price control system [36][37] Group 3 - The decline in population directly impacts market size and economic competitiveness, as a smaller workforce limits innovation and increases production costs [19][20] - Germany's reliance on large corporations, which have high overseas revenue dependence (70%), indicates a vulnerability to global market shifts and a lack of domestic investment [19] - The aging population and declining birth rates suggest that Germany's economic model may need to adapt significantly to maintain competitiveness in the global market [22][39]