宏观策略基金的起伏：市场风格与政策变化的影响

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance divergence of macro strategy private equity funds in China between the first half and the second half of 2025, attributing this to changes in market sentiment and macro policy adjustments [2]. Group 1: Asset Class Performance and Driving Mechanisms - A-shares showed a modest increase of 2.76% in the first half of the year, influenced by economic slowdown and external risks, with defensive sectors being favored [3]. - In the second half, A-shares experienced a structural recovery as policies were implemented and the economy improved, leading to a shift towards aggressive allocations in technology and growth sectors [3]. - Hong Kong stocks performed strongly in the first half, with the Hang Seng Index rising approximately 20% due to foreign capital inflows and low valuation recovery, but faced a slowdown in the second half due to tightening global liquidity and economic concerns [3]. - U.S. stocks, represented by the S&P 500, saw a 5% increase in the first half, driven by large tech stocks, but faced volatility due to economic uncertainties and Fed policy expectations [7]. - The bond market experienced a yield increase early in the year due to revised expectations of monetary policy, but later saw support from improved economic fundamentals and a stable central bank stance [9]. - Gold maintained strong performance as a safe-haven asset in the first half, with prices nearing historical highs, and continued to rise in the second half amid concerns over U.S. policy uncertainty [11][12]. Group 2: Reasons for Performance Divergence in Macro Strategies - The initial slow performance of macro strategies in the first half was due to unclear policy signals and cautious investor sentiment, leading to stable or slightly declining net values [14]. - In the second half, as market signals confirmed potential rate peaks and liquidity improvements, macro strategies shifted to active positions, resulting in accelerated net value increases [14]. - Institutional funds typically enter the market after clear policy signals, contributing to the liquidity boost and asset price increases in the second half [14]. - A significant emotional shift occurred from "fear" to "expectation," allowing macro strategies to capture excess returns if they managed the timing effectively [15]. Group 3: Implications for Domestic Investors - Macro strategy funds are high-risk investments influenced by market style shifts and policy fluctuations, often facing drawdown risks during uncertain market conditions [16]. - Effective management of drawdowns and net value fluctuations in the first half indicates strong asset allocation strategies and risk management capabilities [16]. - Investors should focus on the risk management abilities of macro strategy funds, especially in uncertain market environments, rather than solely pursuing short-term high returns [16].