招商电子·2025-11-18 03:15Core Viewpoint - Nvidia and AMD maintain an optimistic outlook on AI, with Nvidia projecting $500 billion in revenue from Blackwell and Rubin series products over the next five quarters. AMD reported record revenue in Q3 2025 and anticipates a CAGR of over 60% for its data center business. The storage cycle is on an upward trend, driven by increasing demand in the AI era, leading to a sustained supply-demand gap and accelerated price increases in October. The domestic self-controllable process is accelerating, benefiting from the expansion of advanced logic and storage production lines in China by 2026. Investment opportunities are suggested in the storage sector, equipment/materials benefiting from downstream expansion, and optimistic computing power sectors [3][4][5]. Industry Sentiment Tracking - Demand Side: Some consumer electronics sectors are recovering, with innovations driven by AI and automotive applications. Global smartphone shipments increased by 2.6% YoY in Q3 2025, while PC shipments rose by 9.4% YoY. Wearable AI glasses saw significant growth, although growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year. Server shipments are projected to grow by 24.1% YoY [4][5]. - Inventory Side: Power MCU and analog DOI saw a decrease, with inventory adjustments nearing completion. Q3 2025 saw an increase in average inventory for both domestic and overseas smartphone chip manufacturers [5]. - Supply Side: Capacity utilization rates are recovering, with TSMC reporting strong demand for AI data centers. SMIC's capacity utilization reached 95.8%, and domestic advanced logic production line expansions are expected to accelerate by 2026 [5][6]. - Price Side: Since Q3 2025, DRAM and NAND prices have risen significantly, with October seeing accelerated price increases due to AI server demand [6]. - Sales Side: Global semiconductor sales in September 2025 reached $64.97 billion, marking a 25.1% YoY increase [6]. Industry Chain Tracking - Design/IDM: Demand for AI-related chips is increasing, with Nvidia and AMD showing strong performance. AMD's Q3 2025 revenue reached a record high, and its data center business is expected to grow significantly [8][9]. - Storage: The storage industry is experiencing a cyclical upturn driven by AI demand, with profitability improving for manufacturers [9]. - MCU: The market is seeing a mild recovery, although the effect of customers pulling inventory ahead of time has weakened compared to the first half of the year [10]. - Analog: Demand for AI-related products remains optimistic, but domestic consumer demand has weakened, affecting Q3 performance [10]. - RF: Mergers among major players are reshaping the market landscape, presenting opportunities for domestic manufacturers [11]. - CIS: Domestic manufacturers are making breakthroughs, particularly in automotive applications [11]. - Power Semiconductors: Infineon has raised its revenue guidance for AI data centers, while domestic companies showed mixed performance in Q3 2025 [12]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from the ongoing upturn in the storage cycle, equipment/materials benefiting from downstream expansion, and optimistic computing power sectors. Specific attention is recommended for domestic chip manufacturers and companies poised to benefit from the recovery in AI server demand [15].