基本面主导风格因子切换，等待趋势确认——2026年金融工程投资策略

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in investment styles driven by fundamental factors, indicating a transition from growth to value investing as economic indicators improve and market trends are confirmed [3][5][67]. Group 1: Factor Performance - Growth factors have shown strong performance this year, with cumulative returns of 37.93% in the CSI 300 index, while momentum and dividend factors have underperformed [8][11]. - Low volatility factors have performed poorly in the CSI 300, reflecting the high volatility characteristics of the market this year [10][12]. - The performance of long-term momentum factors has been weak, indicating rapid rotation among industries and sectors [10][14]. Group 2: Macro Quantitative Framework - The macroeconomic cycle has been switching more frequently in the past three years compared to before 2020, with economic indicators suggesting a downturn in the first half of 2025 followed by a recovery towards the end of the year [32][38]. - The liquidity indicators have shown a weak overall trend, with market trading rates rising, indicating a correction in liquidity expected in the second half of 2025 [40][46]. - Credit indicators have shown a preference for expansion in the first half of 2025, aligning with social financing, but are expected to shift towards contraction in the second half [53][48]. Group 3: 2026 Equity Quantitative Outlook - The investment strategy for 2026 is expected to be driven by fundamental factors, with a focus on value before growth as economic conditions improve [5][54]. - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with a trend confirmation expected to benefit value and long-term momentum factors, while growth factors are anticipated to perform better in a volatile environment [75][80]. - Industry rotation speed has slowed down, indicating potential for the formation of main lines in the market, with a focus on industries with low crowding and emerging trends [82][85].