“一夜之间”，每个人都在卖英伟达

Core Viewpoint - Major institutional investors are selling off Nvidia shares, indicating a shift towards risk management despite the ongoing AI hype [1][2][5]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Actions - Billionaire Peter Thiel's hedge fund, Thiel Macro LLC, sold all 537,742 shares of Nvidia by the end of Q3, coinciding with Nvidia's market cap surpassing $5 trillion [1][4]. - Bridgewater Associates significantly reduced its Nvidia holdings by 65.3%, from 7.23 million shares to 2.51 million shares, marking a strategic shift from trend-following to risk management [4][6]. - SoftBank also disclosed the sale of all its Nvidia shares, reflecting a broader trend among top institutional investors towards cautious repositioning [5][7]. Group 2: Macro Risks and Strategy Shift - The collective withdrawal of institutional investors aligns with warnings from Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio about the global debt cycle entering a late-stage risk phase, with potential financial crises stemming from sovereign debt issues [3][6]. - Rising U.S. public debt, geopolitical tensions, and central bank interventions are increasing systemic risks, prompting investors to adopt a more cautious stance on high-valuation tech stocks [7]. Group 3: Analyst Expectations for Nvidia - Despite the sell-off by major investors, Wall Street analysts maintain optimistic expectations for Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, with projected adjusted earnings of $1.23 per share and revenue of $54.83 billion for the October quarter [3][8]. - Analysts from D.A. Davidson and Morgan Stanley reaffirmed their buy ratings and set target prices of $250 and $215, respectively, citing strong demand trends in cloud services and potential for robust earnings surprises [9][10].