国泰海通｜固收：博弈“名义变量”与“局部背离”——低利率预期反转下的固收+资产复盘与2026年研判

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the global monetary and fiscal systems post-2008, particularly after 2020, and their implications for domestic economic and fixed-income asset forecasts [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal and Monetary Changes - The new fiscal framework post-2020 includes large-scale government borrowing to create demand, with debt monetization and refinancing maintaining existing deficits and interest [1]. - Monetary policy has shifted to support fiscal sustainability rather than solely focusing on inflation targets [1]. - The rapid fiscal expansion has led to a preference for equity markets with higher profit elasticity, while nominal variables like CPI have risen quickly, causing interest rates to increase and fluctuate significantly [1][2]. Group 2: Divergence in Economic Indicators - There is a "triple divergence" observed where government leverage increases while household and corporate leverage remains stable or declines, leading to rising interest rates independent of household and corporate recovery [2]. - Despite fiscal efforts and rising government leverage, economic conditions have not improved significantly, yet stock markets continue to rise while bond markets show volatility [2]. - The performance of new economy sectors, particularly technology, diverges from traditional industries, indicating a split in asset performance [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Given the "local divergence," the pursuit of alpha becomes crucial as fixed-income and easily accessible returns have been largely neutralized [3]. - A focus on risk appetite is essential, with attention to tail risks in certain assets, and a strategy of selecting assets based on price and elasticity differentiation [3]. - The convertible bond market shows a strong supply-demand mismatch, necessitating a focus on technology and elastic sectors for a balanced approach [3]. - The REITs market faces ongoing challenges, requiring careful selection of favorable sectors, while bank margins depend on the reduction of funding costs [3].