后天凌晨，英伟达面临“大考”

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's upcoming Q3 earnings report is highly anticipated as it serves as a bellwether for the AI industry, with expectations of strong performance despite concerns over an AI bubble [2][3][4]. Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts expect Nvidia to report earnings of $1.25 per share and revenue of $54.9 billion for Q3, representing a 56% year-over-year growth [4]. - There is optimism that Nvidia will provide guidance for Q4 FY2025, with projected revenue of $61.44 billion, indicating a potential acceleration in growth [4][5]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Analysts note that large-scale enterprises are increasing capital expenditures to support AI initiatives, which is expected to benefit Nvidia significantly [6]. - Major companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon are driving spending growth that is likely to flow to Nvidia [6]. Future Guidance and Market Outlook - Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, is expected to provide insights on unfulfilled orders and the overall outlook for 2026, which could influence the tech industry's future [7]. - Analysts predict Nvidia's total revenue for 2026 could reach $286.7 billion, significantly higher than previous market expectations [8][9]. Strategic Partnerships and Investments - Nvidia has made substantial investments, including up to $10 billion in OpenAI and $5 billion in Intel, aimed at enhancing compatibility between their technologies [11][12]. - Nvidia's collaboration with Nokia to integrate GPUs into cellular network hardware is also noteworthy [12]. Competitive Landscape - Nvidia currently holds over 90% of the global AI GPU market, but competition is intensifying as clients develop custom semiconductors [13]. - The company is expected to address how it plans to navigate this increasing competition during the earnings call [13]. Challenges in the Chinese Market - Nvidia faces significant uncertainty in the Chinese market, with projections indicating a decline in market share from 66% in 2024 to 54% in 2025 [14][15]. - The impact of U.S. export controls has severely limited Nvidia's sales potential in China, raising concerns about future revenue from this region [15][16].