高盛2026年投资展望:AI领域驱动私募股权结构分化,关注行业领先公司折价机会

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of S funds and continuation funds as key liquidity sources for GPs and LPs in the private equity market [7] Public Market Insights - Stock markets are driven by AI, geopolitical factors, and monetary policy, with a focus on combining fundamental and quantitative strategies [4] - The "Seven Giants" in the U.S. continue to expand market share due to strong core businesses and strategic reinvestment, with AI capital expenditures expected to persist through 2026 [4] - Small-cap stocks are anticipated to grow, particularly in defense, technology, consumer, and healthcare sectors, although higher volatility and liquidity risks necessitate superior active management [4] - In Europe, sectors like defense, energy, and finance show potential for outperformance, with a focus on navigating market fragmentation through quantitative strategies [4] - Japan's market is supported by mild inflation, stable monetary policy, and potential fiscal support from the new government, despite high valuations [4] - Emerging markets may outperform the overall market in 2026 due to favorable macro conditions, with current forward P/E ratios approximately 40% lower than U.S. stocks [5] Private Market Insights - The private equity market is experiencing increased transaction activity due to strong capital market performance and low financing costs, with a focus on value creation and operational stability [7] - LPs are expected to maintain interest in secondary markets, with S funds and continuation funds being crucial liquidity sources amid slow exit speeds [7] - There is a growing demand for growth equity financing as companies prefer to remain private for strategic flexibility, indicating a shift towards larger funding rounds [7][8] - The private credit market is expected to see increased demand for credit financing due to a favorable M&A environment, with private credit offering higher yields than public markets [8] - Infrastructure investments are anticipated to benefit from trends in AI, digitalization, and energy production, with opportunities in areas like the circular economy [9]