乘用车零售增速明显回落——每周经济观察第46期

Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with external trade indicators improving while domestic consumption and real estate sales decline [2][3][15] - The container throughput at Chinese ports has increased by 1.4% week-on-week as of November 9, with a four-week year-on-year growth of 8.9% [2][28] - Commodity prices, including oil, gold, and copper, have seen upward trends, with the South China Comprehensive Index rising by 0.9% [2][40] Consumer Demand - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have turned negative, with a year-on-year decline of 19% as of November 9, compared to a growth of 5.8% in October [3][15] - Real estate sales have worsened, with a 38% year-on-year drop in transaction volume across 67 cities in the first two weeks of November [3][15] - The average land premium rate has decreased, indicating a cooling real estate market [15] Production and Infrastructure - Infrastructure activity continues to decline, with cement shipment rates dropping to 33.4% in the first week of November, down from 38.2% year-on-year [3][19] - The asphalt plant operating rate has also decreased to 29%, reflecting a slowdown in construction activities [19] Trade Dynamics - The number of vessels departing from major Chinese ports has decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in mid-November, indicating a potential slowdown in trade [28] - Direct trade flow between China and the U.S. has seen a significant drop, with the number of cargo ships falling by 35.8% year-on-year [29] Price Trends - Domestic and international commodity prices have rebounded, with significant increases in gold, copper, and oil prices [40][41] - The second-hand housing market has experienced a notable decline, with first-tier cities seeing a 0.8% drop in listing prices [42] Interest Rates and Financing - Funding rates have slightly increased, with DR001, DR007, and R007 rising by 4.08bps, 5.43bps, and 2.68bps respectively as of November 14 [4][60] - The issuance of local government bonds has been updated, with a total of 102.6 billion yuan planned for the week of November 17 [46]