中金刘刚最新研判：2026年“牛市”的下一步，是“信用扩张”的方向决定一切

Core Viewpoint - The core logic for global asset allocation in 2026 is to "follow the direction of credit expansion" [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The hidden mainline of the market is that the direction of credit expansion determines the strength of assets and the flow of funds [3] - The past couple of years in the Chinese market have been characterized by "excess liquidity" chasing "scarce return assets," with the recognized scarce assets changing over time [3] - Key factors for future market judgment include whether the liquidity environment has been damaged and whether scarce assets can expand to a broader range [3] Group 2: Credit Expansion and Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 is framed around the "credit cycle," focusing on three main subjects of credit expansion [4] - In the Chinese market, the credit cycle is expected to experience a slowdown, with structural prosperity still present despite challenges [6] - The U.S. market is seeing a gradual recovery in the credit cycle, supported by fiscal and monetary easing, with no significant signs of bubble formation in AI investments [7] Group 3: Structural Opportunities in China - The overall credit cycle in China is expected to face challenges starting from Q4, but structural prosperity remains effective [9] - The correlation between market performance and economic expectations has increased, indicating a need to focus on structural trends for excess returns [9] - Three structural directions for prosperity include AI-driven trends, capacity cycle reversals, and external demand mapping [9] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The outlook for the Hong Kong market in 2026 suggests limited index space, with potential growth coming from structural changes or unexpected pullbacks rather than pure valuation expansion [11] - The Hang Seng Index's dynamic valuation is currently at 11.4 times, indicating a position above the historical average, suggesting that the market is not "cheap" [11] Group 5: Recommended Investment Directions - It is advisable to maintain a moderate allocation to dividend assets to counter the weakening of the overall credit cycle [13] - Key sectors to focus on include AI software and hardware, electric new energy, chemicals, home furnishings, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with careful consideration of valuation and crowding [13] - A potential rise in China's PPI towards the end of this year could provide an opportunity for market shifts towards cyclical and certain consumer sectors [14]