中金 | 解码再工业化（二）：美国制造业回流进行时——万亿投资背后的现实图景

Core Insights - The article discusses the trend of re-industrialization in the U.S. manufacturing sector, highlighting the impact of government policies, investment patterns, and the challenges faced in labor supply and infrastructure [1][2][4]. Group 1: Re-Industrialization Trends - The U.S. manufacturing sector has undergone a transformation from de-industrialization to re-industrialization, with government policies playing a crucial role through subsidies, tax cuts, and support for innovation [2][3]. - From 2020 to 2024, the share of spending on electronic and electrical equipment construction increased from 12% to 55%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 93% [2][9]. - By the end of 2024, planned large project investments in the U.S. are expected to reach $1.7 trillion, although many projects remain in the planning stage [2][39]. Group 2: Investment and Production - Investment in manufacturing has significantly increased during Biden's administration, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors [3][5]. - The actual output of the manufacturing sector has not yet fully reflected the increased investment, with a historical lag of about three years between construction spending and gross value added (GVA) [3][6]. - The GVA of U.S. manufacturing has shown a compound growth rate of 1.4% from 2019 to 2024, which is slower than the overall economic growth rate [6][19]. Group 3: Trade and Employment - The trade deficit in U.S. manufacturing has continued to expand, reaching $1.2 trillion by 2024, with significant deficits against Mexico and Southeast Asia [7][21]. - Employment in the U.S. manufacturing sector has stabilized, with the number of manufacturing jobs increasing from 11.51 million in 2010 to 12.82 million in 2024 [26][27]. - The share of manufacturing jobs in non-farm employment has remained stable at around 8-9% since 2010 [3][26]. Group 4: Challenges in Re-Industrialization - The U.S. faces challenges in labor supply and infrastructure, with a notable skills gap in the workforce and a lack of supporting infrastructure for manufacturing [4][46]. - Labor costs in the U.S. are significantly higher than in China, with skilled labor being particularly expensive and in short supply [42][47]. - The article highlights that the average wage for manufacturing workers in the U.S. is approximately five times that of their Chinese counterparts, contributing to higher overall manufacturing costs [42][43].