Nvidia(US:NVDA) 吴晓波频道·2025-11-19 00:51Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent global asset sell-off, attributing it to various factors including the Federal Reserve's policy shifts, concerns surrounding Nvidia's earnings report, and geopolitical tensions involving Japan. It emphasizes that all asset classes, including traditionally safe havens like gold, have been affected by this market turmoil [3][5][21]. Global Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 1.18%, Nasdaq down 0.84%, and S&P 500 falling 0.92% on what was termed "Black Monday" [8]. - Following this, the Dow Jones faced a rare four-day losing streak, with maximum declines reaching 1.45% for the Dow and 2% for Nasdaq [9]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke below their 50-day moving averages for the first time in 138 trading days, signaling strong bearish sentiment [10]. - The cryptocurrency market also suffered, with Bitcoin dropping from $126,000 in October to below $90,000, erasing all gains for 2025 [12][13]. - Asian markets mirrored these declines, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index falling 3.22%, marking its largest single-day drop since April [15]. Causes of the Sell-off - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more hawkish stance has been identified as a primary driver of the recent market volatility, with a significant drop in the probability of interest rate cuts for December [22][24]. - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is seen as a critical indicator for the AI sector and the broader market, with major investors like Peter Thiel's hedge fund and SoftBank selling off their Nvidia shares [31][36]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly Japan's comments regarding Taiwan, have also contributed to market instability, leading to a significant drop in Japanese stocks and concerns over the impact on tourism and the economy [39][44]. A-shares and Market Sentiment - The Shanghai Composite Index has approached critical support levels, with the lowest point recorded at 3926.59, raising concerns about the potential for further declines [60][63]. - Analysts suggest that while external pressures from the U.S. market are significant, internal factors also indicate a need for adjustment within the A-share market [64]. - Despite the current bearish sentiment, many analysts remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for A-shares, predicting a favorable environment for investment in 2026 [69][70]. Gold as a Safe Haven - Traditionally viewed as a safe haven, gold has not performed as expected during the recent market downturn, with prices dropping below $4,000 per ounce [19]. - The liquidity crisis has forced investors to sell gold to raise cash, leading to a correlation between gold and risk assets [71][75]. - Historical data indicates that gold is a high-risk asset with significant volatility, challenging the perception of it being a reliable safe haven [76][78]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the current market volatility is likely to persist in the short term, driven by the Federal Reserve's policies, Nvidia's performance, and geopolitical uncertainties. However, it emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies and the eventual return to rational market behavior [80][81].