兴业证券王涵 | 人民币升值：重估之旅刚启程

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant appreciation of the RMB against the USD in 2023 and explores the potential for further appreciation in the coming year, driven by differing monetary policies in the US and China, as well as the gradual correction of the RMB's systemic undervaluation [2][8]. Short-term Analysis - The US is likely to adopt a passive easing monetary policy due to fiscal pressures, while China maintains a proactive and stable monetary policy, supporting the continued appreciation of the RMB against the USD [8][15]. - The US faces approximately $400 billion in additional interest burdens, which may compel the Federal Reserve to implement quantitative easing alongside interest rate cuts to alleviate fiscal pressures [9][15]. Medium-term Analysis - The RMB has been approximately 6% undervalued since 2023, with concerns about its systemic undervaluation gradually dissipating [17][20]. - The establishment of an independent cross-border payment network for the RMB, alongside the failure of US financial sanctions against Russia, has catalyzed the internationalization of the RMB [20][24]. Long-term Perspective - The changing perception of the US's hard power and its impact on soft power is expected to gradually influence currency dynamics, with the RMB's undervaluation likely to correct over time [3][26]. - The "small yard, high wall" policy of the Trump administration may further accelerate the shift in currency dynamics, undermining the dollar's role as a global transaction medium [26].