LSEG跟“宗” | 美官员出尔反尔12月或不减息 上周五美股债虚金全杀

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the implications for commodity markets, particularly gold and silver [2][29]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Actions - The likelihood of a rate cut in January has dropped significantly from 67.6% to 17.4% over the past four weeks, indicating a shift in market sentiment regarding future monetary policy [2][29]. - The unexpected retirement announcement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic has raised speculation about political influences on the Fed, particularly from Trump, who is perceived to have a hawkish stance [2][29]. - The article highlights a recent sell-off in stocks, bonds, and gold, with gold prices dropping by $100 but remaining above $4,000 [2][29]. Group 2: Commodity Market Dynamics - Managed positions in COMEX gold have decreased by 1.1% to a net long position of 493 million, while silver has seen a 5.1% increase in net long positions [4]. - Year-to-date, net long positions in U.S. futures for gold have declined by 13%, while platinum and copper have seen significant fluctuations, with copper's net position turning from negative to positive [8][11][13]. - The article suggests that the recent volatility in copper prices has been influenced by Trump's tariff announcements, which have led to sharp price movements [15]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The article posits that if Trump can influence the Fed to lower rates, gold prices may continue to rise, indicating potential investment opportunities in precious metals [30][32]. - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has decreased by 3.5%, suggesting that mining stocks have underperformed relative to gold, which may present a buying opportunity [19][21]. - The gold-silver ratio currently stands at 80.7, reflecting market sentiment, with a year-to-date decline of 11.2% [25]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The article discusses the potential for a recession and its impact on commodity demand, suggesting that the global economic outlook may worsen, which could affect investment strategies [34]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Fed's actions and global economic indicators as they will significantly influence commodity prices in the coming months [35].