Oracle(US:ORCL) 美股IPO·2025-11-19 07:09Core Viewpoint - Investors are no longer merely buying into the AI narrative but are critically examining the financial costs incurred by companies to support this narrative, particularly those that are heavily borrowing to fund expansion [1][7]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The U.S. stock market indices have experienced declines, with the S&P 500 falling for four consecutive trading days amid concerns over an AI bubble [2]. - A recent survey indicates that 45% of fund managers view the "AI bubble" as the primary tail risk in the market, with growing worries about excessive spending on AI-related projects [4]. - The "OpenAI halo" effect, which previously boosted stock prices, is rapidly fading, as evidenced by Oracle's stock price decline following its announcement of a $300 billion deal with OpenAI [6][13]. Group 2: Oracle's Financial Situation - Oracle's ambitious growth plans are undermined by a fragile financial structure, with a projected capital expenditure of $35 billion for the current fiscal year and an expected annual expenditure of $80 billion by 2029 [9][10]. - The company's net debt has reached 2.5 times its EBITDA, having more than doubled since 2021, and is expected to double again by 2030 [10]. - Market predictions suggest that Oracle will continue to experience negative cash flow over the next five years [11]. Group 3: Risk Assessment - The cost of hedging against Oracle's debt default risk has risen to a three-year high, reflecting increasing market concerns about its credit risk [12]. - The inability of partnerships with AI leaders to boost stock prices raises questions about the sustainability of significant capital commitments in the AI sector [16][17].