东北玉米：有效供给坍缩下的必选项与涨价前夜

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the corn market in 2023, highlighting a significant collapse in "effective supply" due to quality issues, leading to a fierce competition for high-quality corn in Northeast China, which is expected to drive prices upward by late December 2023 [4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The article emphasizes that while total corn production appears stable, quality issues from prolonged rainy conditions have severely impacted the effective supply of feed corn [8]. - It argues that the actual proportion of corn used for feed is likely over 70%, contrary to the official statistic of 64%, indicating a structural imbalance in the market [10][12]. - The analysis suggests that the Northeast corn market will be crucial for the national corn market in 2025-2026 due to its quality [8][12]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - There is a notable "grain grabbing war" occurring in Northeast China, driven by the high demand for quality corn from feed manufacturers [14]. - Data from major ports like Jinzhou and Bayuquan shows a drastic reduction in corn inventory, indicating strong demand from across the country [17]. - The railway transportation system is operating at full capacity due to the overwhelming demand for Northeast corn, contradicting claims that transportation delays are causing shortages [18]. Group 3: Consumption Rates - The article estimates that Northeast farmers are depleting their corn stocks at a rate exceeding 65,000 tons per day, with various transportation methods being utilized to meet demand [19][21]. - It predicts that by mid-December 2023, the selling progress of corn among farmers will reach 50%, marking a critical point where market dynamics shift from a buyer's to a seller's market [23][24]. - The anticipated price target for corn is around 2,450 yuan per ton, contingent on monitoring state corn sales and import volumes [24].