山西煤焦市场调研报告：补库需旺盛，预期扭转，年底前煤价难跌

Core Viewpoint - The coal and coke market in Shanxi is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance in Q4 2023, with prices rising due to limited supply and strong demand, despite some pressure on coke producers from rising raw material costs [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The coal and coke market has shown a "V" shaped recovery since 2025, with a significant rebound in the second half of the year after a period of oversupply and price declines [3]. - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sample coking coal mines in Shanxi was 84.53%, down 6.16% year-on-year, indicating reduced production capacity [6]. - Coking coal prices have reached new highs, with Anze low-sulfur coking coal increasing by 40 CNY/ton to 1710 CNY/ton, a total increase of 170 CNY/ton since October [6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Downstream demand remains strong, with coal mines reporting full orders and low inventory levels, leading to expectations of stable or rising prices until the end of the year [6][9]. - Trade merchants are actively replenishing inventory, anticipating that coal prices will not decline significantly before year-end [3][9]. - Despite the strong demand, some high-sulfur coking coal prices have seen slight declines due to rapid price increases leading to weakened purchasing demand [6]. Group 3: Challenges for Coking Enterprises - Coking enterprises are facing profit pressures due to the rising costs of raw materials, with coking coal prices increasing significantly while coke price increases lag behind [7][8]. - The price of low-sulfur coking coal has risen from 1144 CNY/ton to 1688 CNY/ton since mid-June, while the price of coke has only increased from 990 CNY/ton to 1440 CNY/ton, indicating a disparity in profit margins [7]. - Some coking enterprises are considering reducing supply to clients who do not accept price increases, as they face challenges in maintaining profitability [4][16]. Group 4: Inventory and Trading Strategies - Current inventory levels are low, with many traders indicating that they will wait for a price correction of 50-100 CNY/ton before increasing purchases [9][19]. - A significant portion of the market is cautious about replenishing inventory due to the rapid rise in coal prices, with many traders preferring to wait for a market pullback [9][19]. - The futures market has shown a divergence from the spot market, with concerns about the quality and pricing of delivery affecting trader confidence [10]. Group 5: Company Insights - Company A, a leading coking coal producer, reports strong sales with no inventory pressure, but production capacity is limited due to aging mines [12][13]. - Company B, a major coking enterprise, is facing profit challenges due to high raw material costs and plans to adjust its purchasing strategy based on coal price movements [15][16]. - Company C, a local coal producer, has a strong order book and expects continued demand through year-end, with prices remaining high [17].