2025年全球棕榈油大会——高增长周期的终结，共识与分歧

Core Insights - The global palm oil market is undergoing a significant transformation characterized by high volatility, high premiums, and policy-driven dynamics. The era of supply growth is ending, with demand being reshaped by biodiesel policies, making regulations more critical than traditional supply-demand factors in price formation [4][5][20]. Market Reality - The palm oil market has entered a structurally tight phase due to a fundamental shift in the supply and demand landscape. Key drivers include capacity constraints, policy interventions, and resilient demand. Major producers Indonesia and Malaysia are experiencing a slowdown in growth, while biodiesel policies are reshaping global trade flows [5][6][8]. Supply Dynamics - Indonesia's palm oil production is reaching a ceiling, with forecasts indicating a slowdown or even negative growth by 2026 due to aging trees, slow replanting rates, and land ownership uncertainties. Malaysia's production is also stagnating, with a slight decline expected [6][7]. - Thailand is a rare bright spot, with a production increase of 0.8% due to advantages in EU compliance [7]. Demand Dynamics - Indonesia's domestic biodiesel policies are significantly influencing demand, with the B40 policy consuming approximately 15.62 million kiloliters of crude palm oil (CPO). The proposed B50 policy could further increase demand by 1.5 to 3 million tons, squeezing export supplies [8]. - Import markets remain resilient, with India expected to increase palm oil imports from 8.1 million tons to 9.1 million tons in the 2025/26 period, supported by strategic reserves in China and demand from ASEAN and Africa [8]. Consensus Expectations - There is a clear consensus among institutions regarding a bullish long-term outlook for palm oil prices, driven by structural supply tightness. However, short-term price fluctuations are expected due to inventory pressures and policy uncertainties [9][10]. - The average annual growth rate for global palm oil production is projected to drop from 2.9 million tons in the past decade to 1.4 million tons in the next decade, marking the end of the capacity expansion era [9]. Price Outlook - In the short term (Q4 2025 - Q1 2026), prices are expected to be under pressure due to high Malaysian production and seasonal increases in Indonesian output, potentially dropping to $920-$950 per ton. In the medium to long term, prices may rebound to $1,100 per ton due to seasonal low production and the potential implementation of the B50 policy [10]. Institutional Divergence - Significant differences exist among institutions regarding price forecasts, focusing on the extent of supply declines, timing of policies, and external factors. Some institutions predict a price rebound starting in Q1 2026, while others emphasize the need for policy triggers [11][12][14]. Core Variables and Drivers - The future market direction hinges on several core variables, including the timing of Indonesia's B50 policy implementation, the execution details of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), weather and production risks, and dynamics of competing oils [16][18][21]. - Indonesia's strategic approach to palm oil, driven by resource nationalism, aims to enhance its global pricing power while reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels through biodiesel policies [21][22].