电力设备牛市“尚处于早期至中期”，摩根大通：美国电网升级尚未启动，中国企业有突破美国市场潜力

Core Insights - The growth of AI-driven electricity consumption is accelerating, with extreme supply-side constraints and structural demand surges leading to a backlog of orders for leading power equipment companies, which is 2.5 to 2.8 times their revenue, ensuring high visibility of profits until 2027-2028 [1][3][19] - The global power equipment industry is still in its early to mid-stage, with a supercycle not yet concluded, and data center electricity demand will be a key bottleneck, particularly benefiting Asian companies, especially those from South Korea and China [3][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the U.S., data center installed capacity is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 15%, from 42 GW in 2024 to 100 GW by 2030 [4][6] - The U.S. utility companies are projected to invest $1.1 trillion from 2025 to 2029 for generation and grid upgrades, with capital expenditures expected to reach approximately $208 billion in 2025, a 17% year-on-year increase [4] - Despite surging demand, supply-side capacity expansion remains "disciplined," with delivery times for large power transformers (LPT) extending to 2-3 years, switchgear to over 1-2 years, and gas turbines requiring 3-4 years [4][14][15] Market Opportunities - The structural supply-demand imbalance supports strong pricing power for equipment manufacturers, with product prices having risen over 60% since 2021 without signs of slowing [4][15] - The global installed capacity for data centers is projected to increase from 117 GW in 2023 to approximately 242 GW by 2028, with a CAGR of 27% [7][19] - The U.S. will need approximately 100 GW of new generation capacity by 2028 to support data center electricity demand [6][19] Infrastructure Challenges - The U.S. grid is described as "extremely fragile," with interconnection queue times reaching up to 7 years in Virginia and potentially 11 years in certain areas of Texas [11][12] - The average annual construction of high-voltage transmission lines in the U.S. is currently less than 700 miles, a significant drop from 4,000 miles per year in 2013, with a need to build 5,000 miles annually to meet reliability goals [13] Long-term Profitability - The current backlog of orders is sufficient to support leading companies' revenues for the next 2.5 to 2.8 years, indicating high profit visibility [19] - The market has not fully priced in the potential of Chinese companies, such as Siyi Electric, to penetrate the U.S. market, which could lead to significant profit increases due to cost advantages and delivery capabilities [19]