2026投资主线已现？华泰张继强：新开局下的三大叙事重构

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 marks the beginning of a systematic restructuring rather than a simple continuation of the next cycle, with a focus on macroeconomic changes, policy logic, and asset pricing shifts [1]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Narrative - The narrative is shifting from "stabilizing growth" to "high-quality development," with a new focus on fiscal leadership and precise monetary support, emphasizing targeted investments in technology, green initiatives, and public welfare [3]. - The new paradigm features enhanced debt constraints, with local government debt resolution entering a critical phase and market-oriented transformations of city investment platforms becoming an irreversible trend [3]. - Growth drivers are transitioning, with increased resilience in exports, manufacturing upgrades, and the emergence of new energy sectors, while real estate is no longer the economic anchor [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Main Lines - Three structural opportunities are identified for asset allocation in 2026: 1. High-end manufacturing going global, transitioning from cost advantages to a dual drive of technology and brand [5]. 2. Technological self-sufficiency, supported by policies that create a long-term dividend in sectors like semiconductors and AI infrastructure [7]. 3. Green transformation and ESG financialization, where carbon trading and green bonds reshape industry valuation, leading to premium reassessment of low-carbon assets [9][10]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - In a declining interest rate environment, the focus should be on relative value rather than absolute returns, with specific strategies for different asset classes: - For interest rate bonds, attention to duration structure and policy rhythm is crucial [12]. - In credit bonds, differentiation in city investment bonds is increasing, necessitating careful evaluation of regional fiscal capabilities and debt structures [13]. - For equity assets, emphasis on profit quality, cash flow stability, and sustainable ROE is recommended, moving away from PE speculation [13]. - Alternative assets like REITs and infrastructure public funds are emerging as new opportunities for institutional allocation [13]. Conclusion - The essence of investment lies in understanding change, with opportunities in 2026 favoring those who comprehend structural transformations rather than those seeking short-term policy stimuli [17][18].