俄罗斯不计划主动减少石油产量 ：申万期货早间评论-20251120

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - As of November 17, the total refined oil inventory at Fujairah Port in the UAE was 20.652 million barrels, a decrease of 1.159 million barrels from the previous week [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia's oil production forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 510 million tons, and Russia does not plan to proactively reduce oil production while adhering to the OPEC+ agreement [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that as of November 14, U.S. crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, totaled 835.081 million barrels, a decrease of 2.893 million barrels from the previous week [4] Group 2: Financial Market Overview - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the market capitalization reaching 1.74 trillion yuan, while the financing balance increased by 2.581 billion yuan to 24.849 trillion yuan [2][11] - The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with residents likely to increase their allocation to equity assets, supported by potential inflows of external capital due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the appreciation of the RMB [2][12] Group 3: Methanol and Chemical Products - Methanol futures fell by 0.99%, with coastal methanol inventories reaching 1.674 million tons as of November 13, an increase of 75,000 tons or 4.69% from November 6 [3][15] - The average operating load of domestic coal-to-methanol facilities was 86.8%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points [15] Group 4: Market Trends in Commodities - The SC crude oil futures fell by 1.6%, with analysts suggesting that a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could increase Russian oil exports, exacerbating supply surplus issues [4][14] - The copper market saw a rise in prices due to tight supply conditions, while zinc prices fell amid stable supply and demand dynamics [19][20] Group 5: Real Estate and Housing Market - According to the China Index Academy, the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in key cities showed slight growth in the first ten months of the year, although market activity decreased in October [8]