美联储会议纪要暴严重分歧：多人认为不适合12月降息，一些人担心股市无序下跌

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among policymakers regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in December, with a consensus to halt the balance sheet reduction (QT) [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Many participants believe that further rate cuts may be appropriate as the committee shifts towards a more neutral policy stance, although some express reservations about a 25 basis point cut in December [2][4]. - The minutes indicate that a majority of participants are concerned that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation risks, especially given the current high inflation data and a cooling labor market [4][6]. - There is a notable hawkish sentiment within the Fed, as evidenced by the discussions around the limited impact of recent tariff increases on overall inflation and the need to manage employment risks [4][5]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction - Almost all participants agree that it is appropriate to end the balance sheet reduction on December 1, marking the conclusion of a three-and-a-half-year process that began in June 2022 [7][8]. - The Fed plans to reinvest the principal repayments from agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) into short-term U.S. Treasury securities, which will replace maturing MBS holdings [7][10]. - Many participants suggest that a higher proportion of short-term Treasury holdings will provide the Fed with greater flexibility to respond to changes in reserve demand or non-reserve liabilities, thereby maintaining adequate reserve levels [11]. Group 3: Financial Stability Concerns - Some Fed officials express concerns about the high asset valuations in financial markets, particularly the risk of a disorderly decline in stock prices if the market reassesses the prospects of AI technologies [5][6]. - There are also worries related to corporate high debt levels, indicating that the Fed is closely monitoring financial stability alongside inflation and employment [6].