半导体行业观察·2025-11-20 01:28Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid development of AI chips, highlighting the importance of advanced packaging technologies like 2.5D/3D packaging, particularly focusing on GPU, AI ASIC, and HBM as key components in high-performance computing [2][4]. Group 1: Advanced Packaging Technologies - Advanced packaging platforms are crucial for enhancing device performance and bandwidth, becoming a hot topic in the semiconductor industry, even surpassing traditional cutting-edge process nodes [2]. - TSMC, Intel, and Samsung have established a "triple dominance" in the advanced packaging field, each playing different roles in the supply chain [4]. - TSMC's CoWoS technology has become the de facto standard for high-bandwidth packaging, with significant adoption by major companies like NVIDIA and AMD [6]. Group 2: Market Projections - The advanced packaging market is projected to exceed $12 billion by Q2 2025, driven by strong demand in AI and high-performance computing [4]. - By 2024, the advanced packaging market size is expected to reach approximately $45 billion, with a robust compound annual growth rate of 9.4%, potentially reaching around $80 billion by 2030 [4]. Group 3: Capacity and Cost Challenges - CoWoS capacity is severely constrained, primarily due to NVIDIA's long-term commitments, which occupy over half of the available capacity [7]. - TSMC plans to expand its CoWoS capacity by over 20% by the end of 2026, aiming for a capacity of at least 120-130 thousand wafers per month [7]. - The high cost of the intermediate layer in CoWoS packaging can account for 50%-70% of the total packaging cost, leading to situations where packaging costs exceed the chip costs [8]. Group 4: Intel's EMIB Technology - Intel's EMIB technology is gaining attention as a flexible alternative to TSMC's CoWoS, with major companies like Apple and Qualcomm evaluating it for their next-generation chips [11]. - EMIB allows for cost-effective heterogeneous integration and supports large-scale system expansion, making it suitable for custom ASICs and AI inference chips [18]. - The combination of EMIB with Foveros technology creates a hybrid architecture that balances packaging size, performance, and cost efficiency [21]. Group 5: Samsung's Position - Samsung's advanced packaging strategy is driven by its HBM supply chain, leveraging its position to influence packaging and system architecture decisions [23]. - Samsung's I-Cube technology offers a different approach to advanced packaging, focusing on high-density interconnects and cost-effective solutions [24][28]. - The X-Cube technology represents a significant advancement in 3D packaging, enhancing chip density and performance through innovative bonding techniques [28]. Group 6: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the AI chip foundry sector is no longer just about packaging processes but involves a comprehensive strategy encompassing computational architecture, supply chain security, capital expenditure, and ecosystem integration [30]. - For downstream chip design companies, navigating between different packaging camps will be crucial for determining the performance limits and delivery certainty of future AI products [30].