【招银研究|资本市场专题】跨资产比较的分析框架——跨资产比较系列之一

Group 1 - Cross-asset comparison is a systematic decision-making method aimed at scientifically comparing different types of assets, such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, to assess their relative attractiveness [9][10]. - The relative performance between different asset classes is often more important than the selection of individual securities within a single asset class, as evidenced by empirical studies showing that asset allocation strategies explain a significant portion of portfolio performance [13][16]. - The framework for cross-asset comparison provides a unified metric to measure all assets, reducing cognitive costs associated with understanding and comparing new assets [19][20]. Group 2 - The long-term growth trend of intrinsic value is crucial for understanding the sources of long-term investment returns, with structural factors being key drivers [5][45]. - Predictions for the long-term expected returns of various asset classes over the next 3-5 years indicate that A-shares are expected to see an increase in return levels, while domestic bond assets are expected to decline significantly [6][70]. - The expected annualized return for A-shares is projected at 4.3%, compared to 2.0% for interest rate bonds, highlighting the relative attractiveness of equity assets over fixed income [98]. Group 3 - The analysis framework incorporates macroeconomic factors such as liquidity, economic growth, inflation, and valuation, which are essential for understanding asset price movements [25][91]. - Market prices oscillate around their intrinsic value, and extreme valuation levels often signal significant investment opportunities or potential risks [5][77]. - The dynamic nature of risk management is emphasized, as traditional asset allocation strategies may expose portfolios to risks during specific macroeconomic conditions [31][86]. Group 4 - The article discusses the importance of understanding long-term structural factors that influence asset values, such as technological advancements and demographic changes [45][51]. - The expected returns and risks of major asset classes are assessed based on historical data and forward-looking analyses, with a focus on the underlying cash flow generation of assets [58][68]. - The framework for assessing market sentiment and cyclical fluctuations is integrated into the analysis, allowing for tactical timing strategies in asset allocation [77][95].