甲醇：跌跌不休何时了？

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market has been experiencing a continuous decline since August 2025, with a drop of nearly 20%, primarily due to high inventory, high supply, and weak demand, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [3][4]. Group 1: Supply Factors - The direct driver of methanol's decline is the high inventory pressure along the coast, with port inventory exceeding 1.5 million tons since September [6]. - The increase in inventory is mainly due to high import volumes, with October's import unloading estimated at 1.65 million tons, and November expected to maintain high levels [6]. - Overseas methanol production capacity utilization remains high, particularly in Iran, where production limits have not met expectations, contributing to sustained inventory pressure [6]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand side remains weak, with many downstream products experiencing poor terminal demand and deteriorating profits, leading to reduced operating rates in methanol downstream procurement [10]. - Specific downstream sectors, such as acetic acid and MTBE, are facing supply growth outpacing demand growth, further pressuring profits and production rates [10]. - Seasonal factors are also at play, with expectations of reduced demand as winter approaches, particularly for products like formaldehyde [10]. Group 3: Regional Market Dynamics - Inland markets are showing relatively stronger performance compared to coastal markets, supported by higher coal prices, although there is a risk of reduced operating rates if profits continue to be squeezed [14]. - Recent data indicates a decrease in port inventory, suggesting some support for inland methanol prices, although supply is expected to increase in the short term [16]. Group 4: Summary and Outlook - The main methanol contract has seen fluctuations around 2,100 yuan/ton, recently accelerating its decline to around 2,000 yuan/ton due to weak market conditions and unmet production cut expectations from Iran [18]. - The overall outlook for the methanol market remains bearish in the short term, with limited recovery potential, although winter gas supply constraints may eventually ease pressure [18]. - Long-term prospects depend on actual supply reductions and demand recovery, with potential upward momentum if Iranian production cuts materialize [18].