【广发宏观王丹】11月EPMI淡季回落，基本面有待新的信号指引

Core Viewpoint - The November Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) decreased by 7.0 points to 52.7, which is a larger decline than the seasonal average of 3.0 points from 2014 to 2024, indicating a significant fluctuation related to the sharp rise in October [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections EPMI Overview - The EPMI's decline reflects a "V-shaped" fluctuation, with October experiencing a significant rise of 7.3 points [1][3]. - The absolute EPMI value of 52.7 is below the historical average of 55.0 for November, marking it as the third lowest in the historical context [5]. Changes Compared to Previous Months - Compared to September, November saw a rebound in production but a decline in demand. Key changes include: 1. Production index decreased by 10.3 points, while procurement volume fell by 6.5 points [8]. 2. Prices continued to rise, with purchase prices and sales prices up by 2.2 and 3.0 points respectively compared to September [8]. 3. The financing environment improved, with loan difficulty indicators down by 0.6 points from September [8]. 4. Corporate investment and R&D activities remained cautious, with indicators for expectations, R&D activities, and new product investments down by 2.8, 2.2, and 2.2 points respectively compared to September [8]. Sector Performance - Among the seven emerging industries, the highest EPMI was recorded in the new energy vehicle sector, followed by new generation information technology and biotechnology, both maintaining a level above 55 for two consecutive months [11]. - The marginal improvements in the biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors exceeded 5 points compared to September [11]. Upcoming Data and Market Implications - The manufacturing PMI data will be released at the end of the month, which is expected to provide more critical insights than the EPMI, as the latter is limited to emerging industries [15][18]. - Current high-frequency data indicates a weakening trend in durable goods retail, real estate sales, and construction workload compared to October [15][16]. Conclusion - The November EPMI reflects a seasonal slowdown without providing strong directional guidance. The upcoming PMI and BCI data are anticipated to be more significant for financial markets, which are currently experiencing volatility due to a lack of new fundamental guidance [18].