国泰海通证券研究·2025-11-20 12:46Core Viewpoint - The merger is expected to significantly enhance the overall strength of the companies involved, with synergies anticipated mainly in expanding the customer base and improving asset efficiency [1][3]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On November 19, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) announced plans for a major asset restructuring, intending to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, with a suspension period not exceeding 25 trading days. This integration is driven by the need to improve the management of state-owned financial capital and the goal of building a top-tier investment bank [2]. Expected Outcomes of the Merger - The merger is projected to elevate the combined strength of CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities from their current industry rankings of 8th, 25th, and 26th to potentially 3rd or 4th. Post-merger, net revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, total assets, and net assets are expected to rank 3rd, 6th, 4th, and 4th in the industry, respectively [3]. - In terms of specific business segments, self-operated income is anticipated to rise to 3rd place, with improved capital utilization efficiency post-merger (CICC's leverage ratio at 5.4x compared to Dongxing Securities at 3.2x and Xinda Securities at 3.8x). The brokerage business is expected to enhance the customer base, particularly in regions like Fujian and Liaoning [3]. Investment Recommendations - The supply-side reform remains a significant long-term change in the industry. The current valuation of the brokerage sector is seen as undervalued relative to fundamentals (currently at 1.40x PB, with 5/10 year PB percentiles at 57%/40%). It is anticipated that the event will catalyze a recovery in sector valuations, leading to a continued recommendation for investment [3].