厄尔尼诺及拉尼娜影响下油菜籽供给指标如何演变

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of El Niño and La Niña on canola production in major exporting countries, highlighting the probabilities of yield changes and area variations under different climatic conditions [5][10]. Group 1: El Niño Impact - In Canada, initial high temperatures during the sowing period lead to a higher probability of reduced yield (44%), but an increased area (56%) may offset this, resulting in a 67% chance of overall production increase [5]. - Ukraine experiences dry conditions during the planting period, with a high probability of reduced yield (78%) but also a 56% chance of increased area, leading to a 56% probability of production increase [5]. - Australia faces high temperatures and drought during the growing season, with a 78% probability of reduced yield and a 67% chance of overall production decrease [6]. - In Russia, some areas are cooler during the growing season, with a 63% probability of reduced area and a 50% chance of reduced yield, leading to a 63% probability of decreased production [7]. - The EU experiences wet and hot conditions during sowing, with an 86% probability of reduced yield and a 57% chance of decreased area, resulting in an 86% probability of reduced production [7]. Group 2: La Niña Impact - In Canada, only a small part of the western coastal region is affected by cooler temperatures, leading to a 55% probability of reduced yield but a 64% chance of increased area, resulting in a 73% probability of overall production increase [8]. - Australia shows a high probability of increased production (82%) and yield (73%) during La Niña conditions, with favorable weather during the growing season [8]. - Ukraine and the EU have a high probability of increased yield (78% for Ukraine and 71% for the EU) during La Niña, although Ukraine faces a 67% chance of reduced area, leading to a 56% probability of decreased production [8]. - In Russia, the harvest period sees high temperatures, with a 71% probability of reduced yield but a 100% chance of increased area, resulting in a 71% probability of no overall production decrease [8]. Group 3: Summary of Climatic Effects - Regardless of whether El Niño or La Niña occurs, Canada and Russia have a higher probability of reduced yield, while Australia is more likely to increase production under La Niña and decrease under El Niño [9][10]. - Ukraine and the EU show a higher probability of increased yield under La Niña, but Ukraine's area changes often inversely affect yield, leading to production following area trends [9][10]. - The weak La Niña phenomenon is expected to last until February next year, with current weather conditions in Canada, Russia, Australia, Ukraine, and the EU being monitored for their impact on canola production [10][11].