【2025年三季报点评/小鹏汽车-W】Q3业绩符合预期，AI业务布局持续完善

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q3 2025 earnings that met expectations, with significant revenue growth driven by new model deliveries and a narrowing of net losses [2][3]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [2]. - Automotive sales revenue was 18.05 billion yuan, up 105.3% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to increased deliveries of new models [2]. - Service and other income amounted to 2.33 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 78.1% [2]. - The company reported a net loss of 380 million yuan for Q3 2025, an improvement from a net loss of 480 million yuan in Q2 2025 [2]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for Q3 2025 was 20.1%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, marking the first time it surpassed 20% [3]. - Automotive gross margin stood at 13.1%, slightly down due to product transitions [3]. - R&D expense ratio was 11.9%, showing a decrease compared to previous periods, indicating effective cost control [3]. Strategic Developments - Xiaopeng is advancing its second-generation VLA model for intelligent driving, enhancing efficiency and response times [4]. - The company has partnered with Gaode for its Robotaxi initiative, planning to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026 [4]. - Xiaopeng is also developing a new generation of robots and aims to introduce flying cars by 2026 [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 78.5 billion, 140.2 billion, and 201 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 92%, 79%, and 43% [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to -1.4 billion, 5.4 billion, and 9.5 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are -0.71, 2.81, and 4.99 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 26 and 15 for 2026 and 2027 [5].