长寿奖励为什么不受欢迎？

Core Insights - The article discusses the tontine, a financial product invented in 1693 London, which combines investment, gaming, and mortality betting to raise funds for the government during a time of war [2][3] - The tontine operates on the principle that participants contribute to a pool, receiving interest payments that increase as others die, creating a high-risk, high-reward scenario [3][4] Summary by Sections Tontine Mechanics - Each participant invests £100, with a nominal interest rate of 7%, leading to an initial annual payout of £7 per person [3] - As participants die, their share of the interest is redistributed among the survivors, increasing their payouts [4] Longevity and Returns - If half of the participants die, the remaining individuals could see their returns double to 14%, and if only a tenth remain, the theoretical return could reach 70% [4] - The average life expectancy for a 30-year-old in 1693 was about 30 more years, but only a third would survive to 60, highlighting the disparity between average and median life expectancy [5][6] Investment Preferences - Despite the potential for high returns, 90% of investors preferred fixed annuities with guaranteed returns of 14%, demonstrating a preference for stability over risk [6] - The failure of the tontine led to the establishment of a more modern public debt system in the UK, as the government recognized the public's preference for stable cash flows [6] Behavioral Economics - The article highlights the "certainty effect," where individuals prefer guaranteed outcomes over uncertain ones, even if the expected value is lower [7][8] - Three psychological factors influencing this preference include loss aversion, moral aversion to profiting from others' deaths, and the illusion of control over financial outcomes [8][9][10][11] Conclusion - The tontine serves as a historical example of how human psychology impacts investment decisions, emphasizing that the emotional aspects of investing often outweigh mathematical calculations [12]