中金 | 品类革新系列之精耕细作——割草机器人

Core Insights - The lawn mower robot industry is experiencing a "singularity moment" driven by technological iteration, price reduction, and user cultivation, similar to the robotic vacuum cleaner market in 2017 [2][3] - The industry is characterized by low penetration, high growth, and vast market potential, with key competitive factors being channel capabilities, product technology, supply chain, and cost [3][4] Technological Advancements - The transition from boundary-based to boundary-less technology has led to rapid penetration of lawn mower robots, with the first boundary-less product launched by Ninebot in 2021 using RTK technology [3][10] - By 2024, it is estimated that the industry will ship 300,000 to 400,000 units, with boundary-less products expected to account for 35% of the market, rising to 65% by the first half of 2025 [3][19] Market Outlook - The global market for lawn mower robots is projected to reach approximately $1.5 billion in 2024, with a potential market size of $3 billion by 2028 under neutral assumptions, translating to nearly 3 million units shipped [4][19] - The demand for lawn mower robots is geographically concentrated, with Europe and North America being the primary markets, where the penetration rates are currently low, especially in North America [4][20] Competitive Landscape - The market consists of three types of participants: traditional garden tool manufacturers, technology crossover companies, and startups, each with distinct competitive advantages [5][31] - The competition will focus on product strength, pricing, and channel service, with a significant emphasis on offline sales channels due to the experiential nature of lawn care tools [5][33] Future Growth Potential - The penetration rate of lawn mower robots is currently low, with only 9.1% of global lawn mower sales attributed to robotic models, indicating substantial room for growth [24][26] - The industry is expected to undergo a significant transformation as boundary-less products replace traditional models, driven by technological advancements and cost reductions [3][39] Conclusion - The lawn mower robot industry is poised for rapid growth, driven by technological innovations and changing consumer preferences, with significant opportunities for both established and emerging players in the market [3][38]