Top Charts | 如果“对等关税”被判违法？

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential legal outcomes regarding the "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S., with a high probability of being deemed illegal but possibly delayed in effect to avoid public disorder [4][20]. - The Supreme Court's debate shows a split opinion, with 6 justices leaning towards declaring the tariffs illegal and 3 supporting their legality, citing reasons such as the authority of Congress over tariffs and the original intent of the IEEPA legislation [4][20]. - Three possible scenarios for the Supreme Court's ruling are outlined: a high probability of ruling illegal with a delay, a moderate probability of partial illegality, and a low probability of upholding the legality of the tariffs [6][20]. Group 2 - If the reciprocal tariffs are invalidated, Trump may resort to other tariff provisions such as Sections 232, 301, and 338, with a short-term transition using Section 122 global tariffs [9][21]. - The current investigations under Section 232 cover an import scale of $544.4 billion, with most reports expected in the first half of next year [9][21]. - The likelihood of comprehensive tariff refunds is low, while targeted refunds are more probable, as judicial remedies must align with the harm suffered by plaintiffs [21]. Group 3 - The current tariff structure shows reciprocal tariffs accounting for 45%, Section 301 tariffs for 18%, Section 232 tariffs for 17%, and base tariffs for 19% [11][22]. - For the fiscal year 2025, the expected revenue from reciprocal tariffs is $89 billion, with significant contributions from fentanyl tariffs and Section 301 tariffs [11][22]. - If reciprocal tariffs are deemed illegal, the overall tariff levels may decrease by 25%, with potential revenue dropping to $255.4 billion [22].