美联储会议纪要暴严重分歧：多人认为不适合12月降息，一些人担心股市无序下跌

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among policymakers regarding the potential for a rate cut in December, with a consensus to halt the balance sheet reduction (QT) [2][3][10]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - Many participants believe that further rate cuts may be appropriate as the committee shifts towards a more neutral policy stance, although some express skepticism about a 25 basis point cut in December [3][4]. - The minutes indicate that the term "many" used in the context of the discussions suggests a number lower than "most," highlighting that those opposing a December rate cut remain in the minority [4][5]. - There is a prevailing hawkish sentiment within the Fed, as evidenced by the discussions around the potential inflation risks associated with further rate cuts [6]. Group 2: Financial Stability Concerns - Some Fed officials expressed concerns about high asset valuations in financial markets, particularly the risk of a disorderly decline in stock prices if the market reassesses the prospects of AI technologies [8]. - The discussions also touched on risks associated with corporate debt levels, indicating that the Fed is closely monitoring financial stability alongside inflation and employment [8]. Group 3: Balance Sheet Reduction - Almost all participants agreed that it is appropriate to end the balance sheet reduction on December 1, marking the conclusion of a three-and-a-half-year process that began on June 1, 2022 [10]. - The decision to stop the balance sheet reduction is seen as a response to tightening conditions in the money markets, with many participants noting that a higher proportion of short-term Treasury holdings would provide the Fed with greater flexibility [11].