如何看待香港住宅市场今年的表现︱重阳问答

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong residential market is showing signs of recovery in 2023, with increased transaction volumes and rising prices after a period of decline [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January to October 2023, the transaction volume of private residential properties in Hong Kong increased by 21% year-on-year [2]. - The private residential price index in Hong Kong saw a year-on-year increase of 1.6% in September 2023, marking the first positive change since 2022 [2]. - The Hong Kong City Leading Index is improving, indicating a continued trend of rising transaction volumes and prices in the residential market [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Recovery - The recovery in residential prices is attributed to rental yields surpassing mortgage rates, with the difference exceeding 4% at its peak [3]. - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a decline in Hibor rates, new residential mortgage rates fell below rental yields for the first time since 2022 [3]. - As of August 2023, the new mortgage rate was 3.4%, still lower than the current rental yield of 3.7%, enhancing the attractiveness of purchasing homes [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The change in supply and demand dynamics is fundamental to the stabilization of the Hong Kong property market, driven by an influx of talent and international students [4]. - Over 270,000 talent visas were issued in 2023 and 2024, doubling the annual issuance compared to 2021, with 90% of applicants from mainland China [4]. - The number of international students in Hong Kong increased by nearly 80% for the 2024 academic year compared to 2022, contributing to housing demand [4]. - The rental index for private residential properties has risen over 15% since its low in January 2023, indicating a shift towards a supply-demand imbalance [4].