雷峰网·2025-11-21 09:31Core Viewpoint - The takeaway from the article is that the current food delivery war mirrors the e-commerce subsidy wars of the past, characterized by aggressive price cuts and subsidies that disrupt industry norms and create unsustainable business models for tea beverage brands [4][40]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a significant downturn as seasonal demand declines and platform subsidies wane, leading many businesses to express concerns about survival through the winter [4][6]. - The delivery war has resulted in a drastic increase in the number of tea beverage outlets, with a net addition of 26,000 stores in the third quarter alone, nearly doubling year-on-year [6]. - The high return rates and pressures faced by downstream e-commerce businesses, such as the 90% return rate in women's apparel, reflect the broader challenges within the industry [4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Luckin Coffee reported delivery expenses of 2.89 billion RMB in Q3, significantly higher than the previous year, consuming all incremental profits for the season [5][16]. - The financial performance of brands like Mixue Ice City has also suffered, with stock prices dropping from 600 HKD to 376 HKD, indicating diminishing returns from delivery subsidies [5]. - The article highlights that during the peak of the subsidy war, brands like Nai Xue's Tea saw a 50% increase in delivery orders, but the profitability per order was severely compromised, averaging only 4-5 RMB after costs [11][30]. Group 3: Market Behavior and Consumer Trends - The article notes a shift in consumer behavior, with over half of the increased order volume during the delivery war coming from tea and coffee, compared to only 20% the previous year [10]. - The delivery war has altered the business model for tea brands, with the ratio of dine-in to delivery orders shifting dramatically from 3:1 to 1:7 for many businesses [21][22]. - There is a growing concern among tea beverage entrepreneurs that consumers may become accustomed to lower prices due to subsidies, making it difficult to revert to higher price points post-subsidy [16]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - To adapt to the changing landscape, tea brands are focusing on building membership systems and enhancing private domain operations to retain existing customers and attract new ones [32][34]. - The article suggests that effective supply chain management is crucial for brands to survive and thrive, emphasizing the need for higher cost-performance ratios rather than just low prices [33][36]. - Brands like Gu Ming have successfully leveraged their supply chain capabilities to handle sudden spikes in order volume, showcasing the importance of operational efficiency in a competitive market [36].